I always quarreled with the conception of chemtrails, so I finally made myself some calculations about a stuff X mixed into kerosene. To make a long story short, the calculations are (1) somewhat imprecise, as only a few variables are included, but (2) the result is in a range, where the conspiracy theory would maybe be plausible if the concentration of X would be some ten billion (10⁹) times higher. Please play with the spread sheet (see below), correct my calculations if you find some mistakes, or calculate on your own. In any case, please share your results!

Basic thoughts, assumptions, variables, constants

Let’s start with the assumptions: There is a stuff X in the (estimated per 2015) 300’000’000 tons kerosene. Say it is one percent, that’s about 3’000’000 tons. That’s 3 mio liters at a specific weight of 1, that’s about 10 supertankers. It must be produced, distributed and transported, mixed with the kerosene, etc. Refineries are placed all over the world, about 700 (2006). Not an easy task to keep the constant, even distribution and all secret all the time. Ok, say «they» can fix that.

So let’s make some serious calculations. In this spread sheet (v1.4, Google Docs, Excel, Libre Office) we calculate the amount of molecules of X our lungs would absorb per hour (Make your input on the input sheet of the workbook.). To calculate this I set the following variables:

1. We take an air layer with the height of where the big planes fly.
2. We take a distribution area defined as part of the earth surface to meet higher contamination in urban areas.
3. We distribute all X even in the resulting amount of km³ air. The amount of X is a percentage of kerosene, used per year.
4. We give X a life cycle in days and break it down into a contamination per hour.
5. We give X a molecular size where 1 equals H₂O (18 mol).
6. Finally we have an X-absorption rate of the lungs.

The constants are on the right in the spread sheet, the variables can be entered in the green fields. As a comparing size I chose potassium cyanide (German: Zyankali), because it is one of the most bad poisons. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has a Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) of 0.2 mg cyanide (9.4¹⁹ cyanide molecules) per liter drinking water. 140 mg are deadly: At maximum contaminant level one needs to drink 700 liter water do die.

Please play around with the sheet and find the mistakes, I’m no scientist!

Scenario 1

So let’s start with a good scenario: Take an average aircraft altitude of 2000 m. Say that there is no kerosine but 100% X in all aircraft tanks (about 1000 supertankers a year). Take an active life cycle of 180 days, a molecule size of 18 mol (H₂O, pretty small). A land factor of 0.2, which is only the land surface of earth. And we assume that lungs absorb 100 % of X in the inhaled air. That results in a pollution of 0.000’000’000’9 milliliter X per dm³ (1 liter) air. Or 9^-10 milliliter, or 0.0009 nanoliter.

Or 1.27¹⁷ molecules of X!

This sounds like pretty lot of stuff. But one has to be aware that the deadly dose of potassium cyanide (KCN, 140 mg) is about 6.6²² molecules (66’063’000’000’000’000’000’000). We need to breathe 60 years in scenario 1 to get the the same amount of molecules like 140 mg potassium cyanide.

We reach a concentration of 3¹³ molecules of X per liter air per hour and still miss the above max. EPA contaminant level by 3’000’000 times in this not very realistic scenario. Breathe one month to collect the 0.2 mg KCN.

Scenario 4

Let’s take a more realistic approack: Assume that planes fly with kerosene and take an average flight high of 7000 m. Let’s take an amount of 0.6 of the earth surface to meet the higher concentration in urban areas. Say there is 0.5 % of X in kerosene. Let’s assume X is active over 15 days. This results in in a concentration of 0.87 ml/km³ air. 8.75^-13 ml per liter air (0.000’000’000’000’875). This equals in 25.3⁹ (billion) molecules (25’276’000’000) absorbed by your lounges per hour at a 5-percent-rate, same like oxygen.

We need to breath 298 million years in this scenario 4 to get the deadly dose of KCN. Or 426’000 years to meet the EPA maximum pollution. With the above 25.3 billion molecules of X we miss the EPA MCL about 10¹⁰ times.

Scenario 2 & 3

are somewhat in between, just to make the world go around. But changing variables don’t make a big deal…

Conclusion

No, not really, I guess, no chemtrails, not with human technology. No extraordinary fun for «them». A poisoning over 60 years would be imaginable, but planes don’t fly with X alone. Realistic variables give results way behind human life cycle.

One could argue with kind of alien technology, alien-X or something. But no, I don’t think so. «They» do have nothing aliens could want for trade. And why should aliens collaborate with «them»? Because «them» are floppy protein bags? Besides this is not the focus of this blog.

«They» want control, true, but I believe the «chineese way» or the «high-finance and depth way» is far more efficient than chemtrails with alien technology, «they» don’t need chemtrails to control anything, besides that chemtrails seem not to work.

Or probably there are homeopaths by the CIA who mix up about 3’000’000 tons of X every year? Say 3’000 CIA-agents, everyone shaking 2.7 liters X per day without weekends nor holydays. The Central Shaking Agency! Possible, yes, but I guess… no.

I’m a searcher, so please tell me my mistakes – and please in numbers. Have fun and regularly check your believes!

Article version 1.0, 11.2012. Big thanks to Nadine, who first checked my calculations.